Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
709 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 22 2019 - 00Z Fri Mar 01 2019

A weakening surface boundary will linger just east of the Big
Island through the weekend. Moisture pooling in the vicinity of
the boundary (PWs of 1.50-1.80 in.) will continue to bring
scattered and locally heavy showers to the Big Island and perhaps
Maui through Sunday. Drier air in place across the rest of the
island chain should keep shower activity to a minimum amid light
trades. By early next week the surface boundary should move east
ahead of another front as a deep trough to the north closes off as
an upper low near 40N/155W Sunday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft
will allow drier air to spread across the region, reducing shower
activity. That second front will weaken as it approaches the NW
islands but will raise precipitable water values to near or just
over an inch across the region late Monday into Tuesday. For next
Wed/Thu, ensembles show a decrease in moisture in between systems
to the west near the Dateline and the east along 130W.


Fracasso