Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 734 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 27 2019 - 00Z Wed Mar 06 2019 Model and ensemble solutions cluster quite well over the next week, bolstering forecast confidence. Guidance agrees that a potent storm track from off eastern Asia northeastward to the Bering Sea will favor an amplified and full latitude downstream mean mid-upper level ridge just east of the dateline. A series of impulses will dig to the lee of this ridge and focus ample mid-upper level trough energies along and to the north of Hawaii, with each offering likely closed low development just to the northeast of the state. Main trough/closed low and height fall effects over the state should be today into Wednesday and then again over the weekend, disrupting trades. Pooled moisture and instability with the approach and passage of these systems will support enhanced shower activity along with some thunderstorm potential. It will also be cold enough aloft to support winter storm watches that area now in effect for higher elevations of Maui and the Big Island. Expect much drier conditions in the wake of these system passages in brisk northerly post-frontal flows. Schichtel