Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 01 2019 - 00Z Fri Mar 08 2019

Model and ensemble forecasts cluster quite well over the next week
in a pattern with above normal predictability. Guidance agrees
that a potent storm track from off eastern Asia northeastward to
the Bering Sea favors an amplified and full latitude downstream
mean mid-upper level ridge near 170W. A series of impulses digging
to the lee of this ridge will continue to focus mid-upper level
trough energy along and to the north of Hawaii, with each offering
likely closed low development. A lead closed low now just
northeast of the state has ushered in cool/dry northerly flow over
the islands. Another main trough/closed low and height fall
effects will again disrupt trades over the weekend. Expect only
limited moisture and showers with this system and more cool/dry
northerly post-frontal flow in the wake of system passage into
early next week. High pressure building/bridging to the north of
the state should then support more seasonal/moderate trades
through midweek, but moisture and windward shower activity should
remain below normal levels.

Schichtel