Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 713 AM EST Wed Mar 06 2019 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 07 2019 - 00Z Thu Mar 14 2019 Latest models and ensembles maintain fairly good agreement and continuity with the forecast over the next seven days. Brisk to strong trades will prevail from now into Monday as a surface high initially well north of the state sinks southward into Thursday and is then replaced by a stronger high moving in from the west. Trades should be strongest from late this week into the start of next week. After Monday the guidance consensus still shows that trades will gradually weaken to at least moderate levels in response to a mid-latitude surface boundary supported by a central Pacific upper trough. Elongated shortwave energy aloft will be in the process of settling over the main islands during the next couple days. Guidance continues to suggest that this energy could close off a weak upper low for a time between late this week and next Monday. Upstream flow should kick this feature eastward after Monday but at the same time maintain general upper troughing over the area--with the model/mean consensus axis to the east of the 00Z CMC by next Wednesday. The upper level weakness through the period may provide modest enhancement of shower activity favoring windward/mauka areas. However most rainfall should be in the lighter half of the spectrum as precipitable water values remain near to below normal. Rausch