Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 712 AM EST Sat Mar 09 2019 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 10 2019 - 00Z Sun Mar 17 2019 A relatively benign weather pattern is expected to persist across Hawaii through much of the next week. Surface high pressure will remain centered north of the state into early next week, keeping brisk 20-30 kt trades in place. Trades will begin to weaken by Tue as the surface high slides east and a cold front washes out several hundred miles north of the state. The dissipating front should bring a slight increase in moisture and shower activity across Hawaii by late in the week, with PWs rising to just over 1 inch. In general, models show agreement on the broad pattern with the strongest westerly flow remaining well north of Hawaii through much of the next week, with Hawaii on the eastern periphery of a strong upper ridge across the west central Pacific. By next weekend, model/ensemble guidance suggest the likely development of a more substantial upper-level trough across the north central Pacific. Deterministic solutions vary substantially, but ensemble means all show heights falling north of Hawaii by next Sat-Sun. This scenario would potentially push a stronger cold front southward in the direction of Hawaii, as shown by the ECMWF and GFS. Moisture availability appears to remain rather limited, so while some increase in shower activity would likely accompany the front next weekend, the primary impacts would likely be a period of gusty northwest winds behind the front. Given the time frame, expect deterministic solutions to vary widely with respect to this feature over the coming days. Ensemble means lend at least moderate confidence to the general scenario of a larger trough amplifying, however. Ryan