Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 815 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Apr 17 2019 - 00Z Wed Apr 24 2019 Today's model and ensemble guidance agrees fairly well with the forecast covering the next seven days, aside from details of the upper ridge over the area during the weekend and early next week. Expect trades to be on the light side through at least Wednesday as a cold front passes by to the north of the state and a fast-moving trailing high should be at its weakest while north of the area. The light trades will likely promote a combination of windward and sea/land breeze focus for showers through midweek, with a modest progressive shortwave possibly enhancing rainfall a bit as it crosses the islands. Then from late this week into the start of next week trades will be stronger as an elongated surface ridge builds along 25-30N latitude. During this time frame rainfall should have more windward focus given the stronger trades. Ridging aloft over or very close to the state along with precipitable water values tending to be near to below climatology should keep shower activity in the lighter half of the spectrum. As differences develop for the upper ridge, an average among GFS/ECMWF runs and their means would provide a good intermediate forecast versus the contrasting 00Z CMC (narrow and far enough northward to allow for a weakness over the main islands) and CMC mean (strongest ridge). Rausch