Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 813 AM EDT Fri May 03 2019 Valid 00Z Sat May 04 2019 - 00Z Sat May 11 2019 The well-advertised and anomalously deep closed upper low to the northwest of the area will continue dropping southeastward to near 30N/160W by 12Z Saturday. 500mb height anomalies will be near 7 sigma below average (below observed values in recent decades for this time of year--below the 1st percentile of heights observed). It will then turn to the east-southeast to a position near 25N/152W by 12Z Monday before lifting eastward then northeastward next Tue-Wed. An associated cold front (currently about 475 miles NW of Kauai) is forecast to pass through the state from northwest to southeast tonight though Sunday. Though this front will move through fairly quickly, models show the potential for some deeper tropical moisture to be pulled northward (perhaps a 6-12 hr duration) into the system (PWs 1.50-1.80 inches). 00Z hi-res models show 1-3 inches of rain through 00Z Sunday in localized/favored areas so the potential exists for heavy rainfall this weekend for the island chain. In addition to the rainfall potential, 20-30 kt and gusty southerly/southwesterly to then northwesterly/northerly winds should develop ahead of (then behind) the front starting on Saturday across the state. Drier air on northerly flow is forecast for most of next week with lighter winds overall as the surface low lingers to the northeast of the state. Trades will start to re-establish themselves by next Wednesday or Thursday as an area of high pressure slides eastward along 35N. Ensembles were in good agreement overall next week. Fracasso