Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Wed May 08 2019

Valid 00Z Thu May 09 2019 - 00Z Thu May 16 2019

A relatively dry airmass is over the state today under a weakness
aloft, with light winds and sea and land breezes with some
showers. Modest high pressure cells bridging to the north of the
state later this week into next week will act to gradually
increase trades and moisture during the period in advance of a
frontal approach to the northwest of the islands. Showers over
Hawaii will be limited to favored terrain as a upper ridge settles
over the state, but would become more numerous early next week if
the front can progress and maintain identity/upper support more in
line with the outlier ECMWF versus less amplfied flow of the
UKMET/Canadian and especially the GFS. Only a couple of the 51
ECMWF ensembles members and none of the GEFS/Canadian ensemble
members are as amplified as the ECMWF, but many are more amplified
than the GFS.

Schichtel