Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Wed May 15 2019

Valid 00Z Thu May 16 2019 - 00Z Thu May 23 2019

Models and ensembles maintain good agreement for the overall
pattern evolution through next Wednesday.  High pressure to the
north/northwest of the main islands will promote light to moderate
east-northeasterly trades over the next couple days.  After early
Friday the high will begin to move eastward and strengthen a
little, leading to moderate and occasionally brisk trades
generally from the east through the weekend.  Trades will likely
turn east-southeasterly or southeasterly during next
Monday-Wednesday as high pressure strengthens further while
settling over the eastern Pacific and a front comes into the
picture well west of the main islands.

Expect a trend toward fairly light windward-focused showers as
precipitable water values decrease between now and the weekend
while upper ridging (with two embedded high centers progressing
eastward) prevails just north of the area.  During the first half
of next week southeasterly low level flow should gradually
increase moisture while a modest weakness aloft may develop over
the area.  Thus rainfall could increase slightly though most
guidance does not show such a signal at the moment.

Rausch