Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 17 2019 - 00Z Mon Jun 24 2019

A large surface high builds to the northeast of Hawai'i for the
beginning of the week as a col develops within the ridge axis
owing to a large scale trough dropping southward from the
Aleutians, and another high becomes anchored in place south of the
Aleutians.  An inverted surface trough develops in the general
vicinity of 160W early in the week in response to the building
upper level trough, supporting a quasi-stationary frontal zone to
the northwest of the state.  This feature is not expected to move
very much through the end of the week according to the ensemble
means.

Easterly trades will likely increase slightly through the rest of
the weekend, followed by lighter east-southeast flow in response
to the building trough northwest of Hawai'i.  The boundary does
not appear strong enough to advect deep moisture northward from
the ITCZ, with PWs generally staying near or below 1.5 inches for
this forecast period.  Most shower activity will be confined to
windward facing terrain.

Hamrick