Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 22 2019 - 00Z Mon Jul 29 2019

A surface trough (and perhaps embedded surface low) to the south
of the Big Island will track northwestward over the next couple of
days mostly paralleling the island chain. With a surge of
precipitable water values over 2 inches, this may bring in some
locally heavy rainfall to south/east-facing slopes should this
moisture be realized over land. The models have had a tough time
with the specifics of this surge over the past 48 hrs and would
expect some more changes with the next couple of model cycles. The
00Z hi-res windows do show a maximum over the Big Island between
5-10" either on the east side (ARW) or south side (NMM).

Later in the week, a more typical trade wind pattern is expected
with upper ridging bridging across the state. Breezy trades will
be maintained with a tighter than average pressure gradient.

Fracasso