Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 01 2019 - 00Z Thu Aug 08 2019

...Erick forecast to move south of Hawai'i late this week...
...Flossie expected to approach Hawai'i first half of next week...

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for
Hurricane Erick.  Expect Erick to weaken over the coming days and
pass to the south of the main islands (on a west-northwest track)
as a tropical storm between Thursday night and Friday night.  This
system should bring a period of heavy rainfall as well as stronger
winds and high surf.  Guidance continues to show that highest
rainfall totals should be over the windward/eastern slopes of the
Big Island, with some enhanced activity possibly crossing the
northwestern portion of the main islands as well.

Meanwhile the National Hurricane Center is providing advisories
for Hurricane Flossie.  Flossie is still forecast to approach the
main islands early next week, albeit in a somewhat weaker form
than it should be over the next three days.  There is still a
reasonable consensus that the track of Flossie will be farther
north than Erick.  There is ongoing potential for another episode
of heavy rainfall and enhanced winds/waves, but low predictability
for forecasts five to seven days out precludes determining precise
effects from Flossie at this time.

Away from the two tropical systems expect a moist trade wind
pattern with windward/mountain shower emphasis.  Mid-latitude high
pressure should weaken for a time in response to an east-central
Pacific low.  Eastern Pacific high pressure should expand toward
the middle of next week, supporting moderate trades immediately
behind Flossie.

Rausch