Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 12 2019 - 00Z Thu Sep 19 2019

An upper low to the northeast of the region will slide westward
along 27N by early next week. Light trades may increase slightly
by next week as surface high pressure strengthens between Alaska
and Hawai'i. Models/ensembles remain in good agreement overall
with a trend toward a coherent area of low pressure detaching from
the ITCZ midweek next week. Prior to that, an area of increased
moisture is forecast to move through the region in tandem with the
upper low (late Sat through Mon) from east to west. An increase in
showers is expected but with generally light to locally modest
amounts. 06Z GFS painted a reasonable depiction of rainfall over
the islands with local 1-2" maxima in favored areas of the Big
Island but lesser amounts for other areas. Surface low late in the
period may pull moisture to the west of 160W as upper ridging
settles over the island chain.


Fracasso