Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 806 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 17 2019 - 00Z Tue Sep 24 2019 Wind/precip pattern over Hawaii should be pretty typical through the next couple of days with upper ridging sliding across the state keeping any showers confined to mainly windward locations. Expect trade winds to increase by mid-week in response to surface low pressure developing west of the islands and eventually drifting north/northwestward away from the state. By this coming weekend, models and ensembles continue to show increased moisture and instability reaching the islands as the upper high moves away and upper level/surface troughing builds in. There is pretty good agreement between the guidance on the larger scale picture, but differences in the details regarding timing remain. Regardless, expect increased showery activity to move into the southern most islands by mid to late weekend, and continue through next Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially across the Big Island. Santorelli