Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 18 2019 - 00Z Wed Sep 25 2019 Upper ridging to the east of Hawai'i will slide westward over/past the region through the rest of the week. Generally light windward showers are expected as trades increase a bit. The models indicate an area of low pressure (or two lows that merge into one) to lift northward along 170W from the ITCZ but should keep its associated moisture plume west of the state. By this weekend, an upper low will move in from the west underneath an upper high in the mid-latitudes, bringing an increased chance of rain. The 00Z ECMWF and its ensembles were quicker than the 00Z/06Z GFS and its ensembles, but both systems show an increase in moisture as surges peel off the ITCZ. The 00Z ECMWF was on the most aggressive side of the ensemble spread but the 00Z GFS was on the least aggressive side, so a middle-ground solution is preferred at this time given the lead time and smaller-scale nature of these ITCZ surges. Fracasso