Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 30 2019 - 00Z Mon Oct 07 2019

Models and ensembles remain in good agreement on the longwave
evolution into next weekend. An upper ridge axis will remain to
the northwest of the area until Friday. Lower heights will filter
in from the east to its south over the region. Trades will
increase after late Monday as the pressure gradient tightens
(1032-1034mb sfc high near 44N/153W by 12Z Wed) with typical
windward/mauka showers through the period amid near average
precipitable water values. Some locally-enhanced higher rainfall
totals are possible per some model forecasts. By next weekend,
troughing from just south of the Aleutians is forecast to drop
south-southeastward to the northeast of Hawai'i which will
decrease trades as a surface front sinks south of 30N. 00Z GFS was
on the most aggressive side while the 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF were
more compatible near an ensemble consensus.


Fracasso