Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 01 2019 - 00Z Tue Oct 08 2019

An upper ridge axis/upper high will remain to the north and
northwest of the area until late Thursday into Friday. Lower
heights to its south will linger over the region as well.
Increased trades Tuesday through late Friday due to a tightening
pressure gradient (1032-1033mb sfc high near 43N/152W by 12Z Wed)
will support typical windward/mauka showers amid near average
precipitable water values. Some locally-enhanced higher rainfall
totals are possible per some model forecasts. By the weekend,
troughing from just south of the Aleutians is forecast to drop
southward along 150W to the northeast of Hawai'i which will
decrease trades as the tail-end of a surface front approaches
Sunday and may stall over the northwest islands next Monday. 00Z
GFS and 00Z/06Z GEFS were more aggressive than the 06Z GFS and 00Z
ECMWF, but the 00Z ECMWF lied near the ensemble consensus as most
ECMWF ensemble members were not as deep as the GEFS members.


Fracasso