Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 816 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Oct 02 2019 - 00Z Wed Oct 09 2019 From now into late week expect moderate to brisk trades as high pressure initially well north of the state moves into the eastern Pacific. At the same time an upper level ridge will prevail to the north and then northwest of the region. By this weekend trades will weaken somewhat and turn more northeasterly for a time as a rapidly amplifying upper trough to the northeast of Hawai'i pushes a cold front close to or into the main islands. Modest differences persist regarding exact amplitude of the trough aloft and southward extent of the front. Current clustering has the 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean a little less amplified aloft than most other solutions with the former cluster not pushing the front quite as far south. Typical predictability and error at that time frame recommend an intermediate solution for a single deterministic forecast. The upper trough should relax a bit by early next week, perhaps more than forecast by the 06Z GFS or 00Z CMC. Anticipate greater shower focus over windward/mauka locations through the period. Activity may be a little lighter around Friday-Sunday as the average of most model/ensemble guidance suggests lowest precipitable water values (near or slightly below 1.25") in that time frame. Rausch