Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2019

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 05 2019 - 00Z Sat Oct 12 2019

Upper-level ridging which has been persistent across Hawaii
recently is forecast by all guidance to weaken/shift westward as a
trough/upper low digs southward northeast of the state this
weekend into early next week. Trades are forecast to weaken as
this occurs. A cold front is expected to approach Hawaii this
weekend as the upper trough amplifies. Model and ensemble guidance
show consensus that any widespread shower activity associated with
the front should remain north of Hawaii. By the middle to end of
next week light trades should resume, and models show some
consensus that a very broad tropical disturbance may approach
Hawaii from the east. Solutions differ on the specific timing and
intensity of this feature, but a surge of deeper tropical moisture
(PWs in excess of 2 inches in both the ECMWF and the GFS
forecasts) and an associated increase in shower activity does
appear possible by later next week.

Ryan