Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 AM EDT Sat Oct 05 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 06 2019 - 00Z Sun Oct 13 2019

Upper level ridging across Hawaii will continue to weaken and
shift westward as an upper level trough/closed low digs south
towards the islands this weekend and into early next week. Expect
trade winds to weaken as this occurs, with more widespread showery
activity remaining north of Hawaii along the associated cold
front. By the middle to end of next week, models continue to show
some consensus on a very broad tropical disturbance approaching
the state from the East. Details on timing and intensity of this
feature remain unresolved at this time range, though there is a
decent signal for a surge of deeper tropical moisture (with PWs in
excess of 2 inches in both the GFS and ECMWF) and an associated
increase in shower activity.

Santorelli