Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 18 2019 - 00Z Fri Oct 25 2019

Models and ensembles remain fairly agreeable and consistent with
the forecast over the coming week.  High pressure initially well
north of the state will drift into the eastern Pacific by this
weekend and early next week.  As this occurs expect moderate to
brisk trades to slacken a bit and become east-southeasterly.  One
front will weaken well to the northwest of the state early next
week and likely have little influence on the region.  Another
front should take its place by next Thursday.  It should remain to
the northwest as well but may reach a little farther southeast
than the preceding front.  Current model/ensemble consensus
suggests the front may extend a little farther southeast than the
00Z GFS and possibly get just close enough to support modest
further weakening of the trades.  Guidance continues to show
mostly light windward/mountain-focused showers through the period.
 A pocket of enhanced deep moisture should brush the area this
weekend, the Big Island in particular.  This could briefly
increase rainfall though most solutions suggest heights aloft may
be high enough to keep this increase modest, with more meaningful
rainfall staying south of the Big Island.

Rausch