Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 28 2019 - 00Z Mon Nov 04 2019

Weak troughing in the near term will trend toward lower heights
for most of next week, centered between 155-160W with 500mb height
anomalies around -1.5 sigma. Heights will likely rise a bit by the
start of next weekend ahead of a deeper mid-latitude trough near
175W next Sunday per the ensembles. Consensus/ensemble approach
seemed to suffice.

Frontal boundary about 300 miles to the northwest of the region
will stay just to the northwest of Hawai'i over the next few days.
A fairly typical trade wind pattern is expected to persist through
most of the week, with mostly windward/mauka showers, but with
decreasing trades as upper troughing increases. A brief surge of
higher precipitable water values may pass over the Big Island
Tuesday-Wednesday which may enhance shower/rain activity there. By
next Sat/Sun, upstream trough will carry a surface cold front
toward the northwestern islands. 00Z/06Z GFS runs were quicker
than the ECMWF/Canadian. Prefer a bit slower solution than the GFS
given its recent pronounced fast bias over much of the eastern
Pacific/North America.

Fracasso