Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
820 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 01 2019 - 00Z Fri Nov 08 2019

An upper low over the area will drift northeastward on Friday
ahead of a developing upper low by 00Z/Sat near 40N/170W. Weak
trades over the region will eventually become southeasterly to
southwesterly ahead of the frontal boundary along a southwest to
northeast surface trough. The upper low is forecast to lift back
north of 40N/160W around 00Z/Mon as the surface cold front may
stall near Kauai late Monday into Tuesday. The 00Z ECMWF/Canadian
were on the stronger side aloft with the trailing upper trough
that will pass east of 155W next Wednesday compared to the GFS and
most ensemble members, but was not unreasonable given building
ridging upstream near 180 west of Hawai'i. 00Z GEFS members were
actually deeper overall compared to the ECMWF members. This will
determine if the front could actually push through some, most, or
all of the islands next Wed/Thu though areal average rainfall is
not expected to be heavy. Some local frontal enhancement is
certainly possible.


Fracasso