Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
819 AM EDT Fri Nov 01 2019

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 02 2019 - 00Z Sat Nov 09 2019

Weak trades over the region will eventually become southeasterly
to southwesterly later this weekend ahead of a frontal boundary
associated with an upper low moving east of 170W just south of
40N. This front is expected to stall near Kauai or possibly into
the Kaieiewaho Channel late Sunday into Tuesday. Trend has been
just a bit farther southeast over the past few days. This will
enhance shower activity over at least Kauai and perhaps into Oahu
but with generally light to modest amounts with precipitable water
values near and just over 1.50 inches around the front.

By next Thu/Fri, the ECMWF and its ensemble mean were stronger
with additional troughing (triple point low from a stretched
Aleutian storm) compared to the GFS/GEFS members. As the 00Z ECMWF
was stronger/deeper and farther south than nearly all ensemble
members, prefer to side nearer to the 00Z GFS which was closer to
the 00Z Canadian with at least the surface low, though not
necessarily with the front.

Fracasso