Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 03 2019 - 00Z Sun Nov 10 2019

A surface cold front was located about 450 miles to the northwest
of Kauai early Saturday. The upper low associated with the front
will move eastward just south of 40N then turn northeastward and
northward along 160W by early Monday. The cold front will continue
to move over Kauai on Sunday but likely stall near the Kaieiewaho
Channel into Tuesday. As precipitable water values rise to near
and just over 1.50 inches around the front, shower activity wil be
enhanced over at least Kauai and perhaps into Oahu but with
generally light to modest amounts. Hi-res models show over an inch
of rain on the north side of Kauai as winds turn northerly
post-FROPA. Pre-frontal convergence may also enhance showers
between Oahu and Maui with southeasterly flow favoring
southeastward-facing areas of the Big Island.

By the end of the week, heights are forecast to rise and the front
will slowly dissipate with lingering moisture and scattered
showers as trades resume a more typical easterly to
east-northeasterly direction. By Friday into Saturday, another
trough will past east of 170W which will take a front eastward
past 165W just to the northwest of Kauai. Models/ensembles were in
good agreement for a 7-day lead time and a consensus position
between the GFS/ECMWF should suffice for now.


Fracasso