Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 AM EST Sat Nov 09 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 10 2019 - 00Z Sun Nov 17 2019

Hawaii will lie within a region of weak and variable low-level
flow through the weekend as a surface cold front approaches. The
front is expected to wash out as it approaches the islands, with
relatively modest associated shower activity expected. By early
next week, models agree that surface high pressure should develop
north of the state, bringing a resumption of light trades in the
10-15 kt range, persisting through much of next week. Next
Tue-Wed, a wave in the westerlies should remain well north of
Hawaii, with the only notable effects on Hawaii perhaps a slight
veering of the trades. By late next week, models/ensembles show
broad agreement that an upper trough should begin to amplify
northwest of Hawaii, pushing another cold front toward across
Hawaii through next weekend. Models show some degree of
uncertainty on the timing of this front, but given the orientation
of the upper trough and the front it would appear to have a
somewhat better chance of advecting deeper tropical moisture
northward. Thus, expect some potential for increasing shower
activity across the western islands by late next week.

Ryan