Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019 Valid 00Z Sat Nov 23 2019 - 00Z Sat Nov 30 2019 Surface high pressure well north of Hawaii will keep brisk trades (20 to 30 knots) and mainly windward showers in place through the weekend. By early next week, the models continue to show the development of an upper level low, centered somewhere in the vicinity of 30N/175W next Monday night/Tuesday morning. This should ease trade winds next week as they veer towards the east-southeast while a cold front dives southeastward towards the state. There remains some question how close the best moisture and greatest heavy rain threat gets towards the state, with the GFS depicting at least an increased probability the westernmost islands could be impacted by the middle of next week. The ECMWF keeps heavy rainfall farther west and is also more in line with the better clustering of models at this point. Regardless, at least some increased showery activity for the westernmost islands can be expected, with mainly windward showers favoring the Big Island and Maui. Santorelli