Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EST Sat Dec 07 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 08 2019 - 00Z Sun Dec 15 2019

Models and ensembles show a drier trend this weekend with advent
of more land/sea breezes as high pressure reaches the eastern
Pacific. A cold front approaches the northern islands into Monday
coincident with shortwave trough passage to the north of the
state. A favored guidance consensus gets the front very close to
the northwestern islands before weakening and stalling. Concensus
suggests weak post-frontal high pressure may revive trades some
into Tuesday. Moderate moisture and ridging overhead mostly favors
light shower activity this period.

Another front may reach the state from the northwest into next
Thursday with supporting upper trough amplification. This front
may have enough push to work across the islands. There is
uncertainty with details of amplitude, but good concensus with
trough proximity considerng the longer time frame. Concensus
suggests this front may again disrupt trades and offer a risk of
increased moisture pooling to fuel some enhanced rainfall into
around Friday. Post-frontal high pressure may usher back more
moderate trades into next weekend.

Schichtel