Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EST Sun Dec 08 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Dec 09 2019 - 00Z Mon Dec 16 2019

Models and ensembles continue a generally dry stretch of weather
in a pattern with land/sea breezes. A cold front approaches the
northern islands into Monday coincident with shortwave trough
passage to the north of the state. A favored guidance consensus
gets the front very close to the northwestern islands before
weakening and stalling with exiting support aloft, but with most
rainfall holding to the north of the state into midweek. Moderate
moisture and ridging overhead favors limited shower activity over
the islands during this period.

Another front may reach the state from the northwest Thursday with
supporting upper trough amplification. This front may have enough
push to work across the islands. There is still uncertainty with
details of amplitude, but good concensus with trough proximity
considerng the longer time frame. Concensus suggests this front
may offer a risk of increased moisture pooling to fuel some
enhanced rainfall into around Friday. Post-frontal high pressure
bridging to the north of the islands may usher back more moderate
trades into next weekend.

Schichtel