Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 12 2019 - 00Z Thu Dec 19 2019

The latest models and ensembles show mainly dry weather into
Thursday in a pattern with land/sea breezes under stabilizing
ridging aloft. A favored guidance composite indicates that a well
defined front will approach the state later week from the
northwest with amplification of its supporting upper trough. The
front offers a risk of increased lead moisture pooling to fuel
some enhanced rainfall, mainly into the western islands. Activity
should linger through the weekend as weakened upper trough energy
settles just west of the islands and as a lower atmospheric
inverted trough sets over the state. High pressure bridging to the
north then northeast of the islands will meanwhile usher in
moderate to breezy trades that would transition rainfall focus
into favored terrain. Trades may again be disrupted with potential
appraoch of a another front early-mid next week with passage of
additional mid-upper level troughing to the north, but forecast
confidence in these features is marginal given the long forecast
time frame.

Schichtel