Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Dec 18 2019 - 00Z Wed Dec 25 2019 ...Very strong trades Friday into Saturday... An upper high to the northwest of the region will weaken over the next couple of days. A weak front to the northeast of the area will bring weaken trades a bit with generally light windward/mauka showers on easterly flow. By Friday, another front will approach the region and perhaps stall over the islands by Sunday, enhancing windward showers. At the same time, strong surface high pressure (1033-1036mb, which is much stronger than average for late December) will bring in windy trades (20-35kts with higher gusts) Friday into Saturday or early Sunday before slackening a bit by Monday. This would allow for leeward showers as well. To the west, the models/ensembles still show developing low pressure off the ITCZ near 20N/180 by 00Z Sat with the 00Z GFS still farther east than most of the other models and ensembles. This would bring in heavier rain to at least Kauai by next Tuesday, but the ECMWF ensembles still generally lag the 00Z GFS by about 12-24 hrs. Nevertheless, expect precipitable water values to rise in advance of the rainfall, climbing to near 2 inches by next Tue. Fracasso