Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 AM EST Wed Jan 08 2020 Valid 00Z Thu Jan 09 2020 - 00Z Thu Jan 16 2020 Guidance maintains similar ideas regarding the general pattern evolution at the surface and aloft during the period but with some continued detail differences. Flow around a strong surface high over the east-central Pacific will promote brisk trades and a tendency for windward/mountain-focused rainfall over the state for most of the period. Trades may decrease for a time in the late week/weekend time frame as a surface trough crosses the area, a reflection of upper low energy passing through from east to west. These features should lead to a period of heavier rainfall and possibly embedded thunderstorms. From Saturday onward the 00Z GFS and to a lesser degree GEFS mean continue to differ from most other guidance in being stronger with upper low re-development expected to the west of the main islands. This results in the GFS keeping the axis of highest precipitable water values farther north than recent ECMWF runs over a multi-day period while the GEFS mean has been a compromise between the two. By next week the majority of guidance continues to show heights aloft rising more than indicated by the GFS. However by next Wednesday the GFS converges toward the ECMWF in terms of precipitable water values as drier air begins to move in from the northeast versus the GEFS mean that is slowest with the drying trend. The full range of guidance and continuity would favor a compromise among the ECMWF/ECMWF mean and GEFS mean from late this week into early next week followed by some incorporation of the GFS into the guidance average by the middle of next week. Rausch