Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 14 2020 - 00Z Tue Jan 21 2020

...Heavy rainfall pattern continues for Hawaii...

A still favored composite of reasonably well clustered model and
ensemble forecasts holds a ridge to the north of the state over
the next couple of days as vort energy lingers over the islands in
a pattern with brisk lower level trades. A low that has solidified
west of the islands will meanwhile lift northward away from the
state as trough/low energies dig near the dateline, but overall
slow pattern progression should allow deepened moisture to linger
over the islands. This would fuel an ongoing threat of locally
heavy rain, especially over favored windward terrain as trades
gradually trend from easterly to southeasterly. The weakening of
the high to the north and frontal approach from the northwest
should allow for island trades to slacken through mid-late week.
Frontal approach may act to refocus the slow moving moisture
channel into the state prior to a drying trend this weekend into
next week with system progression and returning trade flow.

Accordingly. flash flood watches are currently in place statewide.
Cooled temperatures aloft have also prompted winter storm warnings
for Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. Small craft and high surf advisories
along with an offshore gale warnings remain in effect. Please
refer to the latest products from NWS WFO Honolulu for updated
information.

Schichtel