Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 16 2020 - 00Z Thu Jan 23 2020

Satellite imagery shows that the convectively active main closed
upper low/trough has settled to the west of the islands and
blended precipitatble water loops show the feeding plume of
deepest moisture is now poised just to the south and west of the
state. Lingering moisture from the recent wet pattern still over
the islands should fuel some showers through midweek as trades
gradually decrease in response to the shifting of supporting high
pressure from the north of the state to the eastern Pacific.
Rainfall may be enhanced Thursday into Friday with return moisture
flow ahead of an approaching front from the northwest in disrupted
trade flow. The mid-upper level trough supporting this front
should push through the islands Friday. This will usher in drier
post-frontal weather this weekend through early-mid next week in a
period with returning trades as new high pressure rebuilds to the
north of the state. This overall scenario seems well depicted by a
favored composite blend of reasonably clustered model and ensemble
guidance.

Schichtel