Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 26 2020 - 00Z Sun Feb 02 2020

The trailing end of a frontal boundary is forecast to dissipate
across Kauai and Niihau through Saturday. Lingering moisture
pooled along the front (PWs in the 1.0-1.2 inch range across
Hawaii) should be sufficient to support scattered showers across
the state. Light to moderate trades are expected to resume through
the weekend as the front dissipates, while a somewhat drier air
mass spreading across the state through early next week should
result in fairly sparse windward shower activity. Models show
consensus that another cold front should approach Hawaii by late
in the week as a shortwave amplifies across the north central
Pacific. Model/ensemble agreement on this system is a bit above
average given the day 5-7 time frame, with the cold front likely
to move into the western Hawaiian Islands Thu night or Fri
morning, and then sweeping east across the state through Fri
night/Sat. As the upper wave moves east, the trailing front across
Hawaii may begin to stall across the eastern islands by next
weekend. Trades should see some disruption ahead of the front,
with low-level flow veering to a more southerly direction, and the
potential for a period of northerly flow behind the front. Deeper
moisture along the front is also likely, with guidance showing PWs
increasing into the 1.2-1.5 inch range, increasing the potential
for more widespread shower activity across the state in
association with the front.

Ryan