Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 27 2020 - 00Z Mon Feb 03 2020

Light to moderate trades are expected to resume through Sunday as
a frontal boundary in the vicinity of Hawaii dissipates. A
somewhat drier air mass spreading across the state through early
in the week should result in fairly sparse windward shower
activity. Models show consensus that another cold front should
approach Hawaii by late in the week as a shortwave amplifies
across the north central Pacific. Model/ensemble agreement on this
system is a bit above average given the day 5-7 time frame, with
the cold front likely to move into the western Hawaiian Islands
Thu night or Fri morning, and then sweeping east across the state
through Fri night/Sat. As the upper wave moves east, the trailing
front across Hawaii may begin to stall across the eastern islands
by next weekend. Trades should see some disruption ahead of the
front, with low-level flow veering to a more southerly direction,
and the potential for a period of northerly flow behind the front.
Deeper moisture along the front is also likely, with guidance
showing PWs increasing into the 1.2-1.5 inch range, increasing the
potential for more widespread shower activity across the state in
association with the front through next weekend.

Ryan