Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 28 2020 - 00Z Tue Feb 04 2020

A somewhat drier air mass spreading across the state through early
in the week should result in fairly sparse windward shower
activity. Light to moderate trades should persist through midweek
with a ridge of high pressure north of Hawaii. Models show
consensus that another cold front should approach Hawaii by late
in the week as a shortwave amplifies across the north central
Pacific. Model/ensemble agreement on this system is a bit above
average, with the cold front likely to move into the western
Hawaiian Islands Thu night or Fri morning, and then sweeping east
across the state through Fri night/Sat. As the upper wave moves
east, the trailing front across Hawaii may begin to stall across
the eastern islands by the weekend. Trades should see some
disruption ahead of the front, with low-level flow veering to a
more southerly direction, and the potential for a very brief
period of northeasterly flow behind the front before the front
washes out and trades resume. Deeper moisture along the front is
also likely, with guidance showing PWs increasing into the 1.2-1.5
inch range, increasing the potential for more widespread shower
activity across the state in association with the front through
the weekend, perhaps lingering into early next week as the front
washes out over the state.

Ryan