Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 30 2020 - 00Z Thu Feb 06 2020

Light to moderate trades should persist through Wed, before a cold
front is expected to reach the western Hawaiian islands Thu night.
The front is forecast to stall across the island chain on Fri as
it begins to wash out. Model consensus on this scenario through
the end of the week is good. A band of somewhat deeper moisture
along the front (PWs near 1.2 in.) may bring some enhancement to
shower activity. An upper low expected to cutoff from higher
latitude flow and drift south toward Hawaii by Sat-Sun may bring
some enhancement to instability, but slightly drier air should be
working its way across the state by that time, keeping shower
activity a bit more limited. Moderate trades should resume by that
time as the frontal boundary washes out and surface high pressure
moves north of the state. Models/ensemble show broad consensus
that a similar scenario should unfold again by the middle of next
week, with an upper trough expected to amplify northwest of
Hawaii, and a cold approaching/reaching to the western Hawaiian
Islands by next Wed. The GFS was a bit faster than most other
solutions with this front, and a somewhat slower solution such as
the ECMWF/CMC and the ensemble means is favored at this time.

Ryan