Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
209 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 31 2020 - 00Z Fri Feb 07 2020

A cold front is expected to reach the western Hawaiian islands Thu
night, then stall across the island chain on Fri as it washes out.
Model consensus on this scenario through the end of the week is
good. A band of somewhat deeper moisture along the front (PWs near
1.2 in.) may bring some enhancement to shower activity. An upper
low expected to cutoff from higher latitude flow and drift south
toward Hawaii by Sat-Sun may bring some enhancement to instability
and shower activity. Moderate trades should resume by that time as
the frontal boundary washes out and surface high pressure moves
north of the state. Models/ensemble show broad consensus that
another upper trough is likely to amplify northwest of Hawaii next
Tue-Wed, with a cold approaching/reaching to the western Hawaiian
Islands by next Wed, and moving east across the state into Thu.
The GFS remained slightly faster than most other solutions with
this front (although not to the degree previously seen). The
somewhat slower solutions such as the ECMWF/CMC and the ensemble
means are favored at this time.

Ryan