Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 101 AM EST Mon Feb 03 2020 Valid 00Z Tue Feb 04 2020 - 00Z Tue Feb 11 2020 The normal trade wind pattern over the state on Monday should begin to veer southeasterly by Tuesday ahead of the next system. Model agreement is improving on showing an upper trough/low driving a cold front down the island chain Wednesday into Thursday. With ample moisture availability ahead of the front (as per the ECMWF and the GFS), this should result in scattered to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Models generally agree that the upper low will linger northeast of the state through next weekend, though differ on the proximity to the islands. With a closer proximity (as depicted by the ECMWF) this could bring wrap back moisture across mainly the northern islands next weekend with scattered showers possible especially in windward favored locations. Regardless though, gusty northerly winds will follow the frontal passage continuing through next weekend. Santorelli