Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sat Feb 08 2020

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 09 2020 - 00Z Sun Feb 16 2020

...Potential for a concentrated system to affect portions of the
main islands early next week...

Today's guidance shows improved agreement with respect to the
forecast covering the next seven days.  From late this week into
the weekend expect a relatively drier period as an upper low
initially to the north of the state moves northeastward and opens
up.  Any light showers that occur should focus along terrain
facing brisk northwesterly winds.  Upstream energy will rapidly
amplify and should close off an upper low north of the main
islands by Sunday-Sunday night.  Consensus has this low meandering
northeast of the state early in the week and then dropping south
over or near the Big Island around Wednesday with continued
southward motion thereafter.  Reflecting earlier runs, the 00Z GFS
is still a little north/northeast of the majority cluster
Monday-Tuesday but then trends close enough to be part of a
model-mean compromise from midweek onward.  An associated surface
low should also drop southward over or near the islands around
Wednesday.  This system will have the potential to bring strong
winds and/or focused precipitation to some locations from Sunday
night into the first half of the new work week.  Specific effects
will depend on the exact track/evolution of the overall system. 
From Thursday into the weekend expect the main islands to see
winds from the east or southeast, with influence from a surface
trough just to the west of the area combined with the southwest
periphery of eastern Pacific high pressure.  This flow should
bring a westward return of an axis of higher precipitable water
values which will have been pushed well east of the state earlier
in the period.  

Rausch