Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Sun Feb 09 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 10 2020 - 00Z Mon Feb 17 2020

...Compact/vigorous system likely to affect portions of the main
islands during the first half of the week...

Guidance clustering continues to improve for the rapidly
sharpening upper level energy that should close off an upper low
just north of the state by late Sunday-early Monday.  This upper
low should remain just to the northeast of the main islands into
Tuesday and then track southwest over the islands around Tuesday
night, continuing south-southwest away from the state thereafter. 
Corresponding surface low pressure will likely track over the
islands from northeast to southwest around late Tuesday-early
Wednesday as well.  Solutions are now close enough to recommend a
compromise among the GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble means as a
reasonable depiction of this system.  Expect strongest winds, with
localized wind damage possible, and coastal flooding potential as
the system takes shape late Sunday into Monday.  Periods of rain
with some local enhancement are also possible until the system
passes to the south of the state. 

The southward departure of the deep-layer low will usher in a
period of light to moderate winds from the east or southeast
through next weekend, with high pressure over the eastern Pacific
and a trough to the west of the main islands.  Models and ensemble
means agree that this flow will bring a band of higher
precipitable water values across the state from east to west
around Thursday-Friday though perhaps with limited increase in
rainfall.  Drier air should move in from the east during the
weekend.

Rausch