Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2020

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 11 2020 - 00Z Tue Feb 18 2020

...Energetic system developing north of the main islands to trend
gradually weaker as it tracks southwestward...

Model and ensemble guidance is still well-clustered for the
evolution of the concentrated low at the surface and aloft now
developing just north of the main islands.  Consensus shows this
system lingering northeast of the area into Tuesday and then
tracking southwest over the islands by late Tuesday-early
Wednesday, with gradual weakening through the first half of the
week.  Expect the strongest winds with this system on Monday while
the upper low may enhance shower activity through midweek.  As
this feature continues southwest away from the state, a more
typical trade wind pattern with windward/mountain shower focus
should become established for the Thursday-Monday period. 
Guidance is consistent in showing winds from the east or southeast
with flow around the periphery of eastern Pacific high pressure
and a persistent surface trough west of the main islands.  A band
of relatively higher precipitable water values will likely pass
through from east to west during Thursday-Friday but with fairly
modest impact on rainfall.  Toward Sunday-Monday guidance diverges
somewhat for moisture with the ensemble means showing lower
precipitable water values than the 00Z GFS/ECMWF.  Differences
depend in part on low-confidence shortwave energy that could flow
around the upper high positioned northeast of the area.  A
model/mean compromise appears reasonable at this time.

Rausch