Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2020

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 12 2020 - 00Z Wed Feb 19 2020

Guidance shows good agreement for the pattern over the next seven
days.  The upper low and surface system now slightly northeast of
the main islands will trend steadily weaker with time, tracking
over the eastern islands Tuesday night.  After that time the upper
low should continue to the southwest or south while the surface
reflection opens up to a mere trough.  Expect some locally
enhanced precipitation with this feature before its departure,
followed by a more typical trade pattern with windward/mountain
shower focus through the first half of next week.  Guidance is
consistent in showing a band of enhanced moisture passing through
from east to west during Thursday-Friday, followed by a drier
trend.  GFS/ECMWF runs have trended lower toward prior ensemble
mean runs with the precipitable water forecast during the weekend
and early next week, so now the models and means offer similar
ideas.  The combination of flow around eastern Pacific high
pressure and a trough to the west of the state should support
winds from the southeast or east late this week into the weekend. 
Details differ but guidance suggests in principle that flattening
of the pattern should lead to winds becoming more directly from
the east by early next week.

Rausch