Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 24 2020 - 00Z Mon Mar 02 2020

A surface front will approach Kauai early Monday and then
stall/dissipate by Tuesday or Wednesday. Generally light showers
are expected as precipitable water values fluctuate around an inch
and upper heights rise starting on Monday. By Tuesday into
Wednesday, upper ridging will build between 170W-180 which may
help tug some troughing back westward from around 140W, especially
as upper ridging bridges to the north/northeast atop the region
this coming weekend. Ensembles generally suggest a weak upper low
to settle near or just east of the Big Island Sat/Sun. This would
help to draw in higher precipitable water values to at least the
Big Island next weekend amid a more unstable environment. This
could lead to an increase in showers and locally heavy rainfall.
Elsewhere, modestly tight pressure gradient will support elevated
trades for much of the week with mainly light/modest showers.


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