Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 01 2020 - 00Z Sun Mar 08 2020

...Heavy rain possible this weekend into next week...

Troughing to the northeast of the area will eventually form a
closed low that will move westward across the islands late
Sat-Mon, weakening thereafter as it moves northwestward and
northward around an upper high to the northeast then east. The
latest suite of model guidance shows good agreement with this
evolution. At the surface, models continue to show a ~1040mb high
settling well north of the state, and the resulting strong
pressure gradient across Hawaii will yield breezy trades into the
beginning of next week, subsiding by Wednesday and beyond as
heights begin to rise back above average.

The upper low will bring a cold/unstable airmass across the
region, possibly supporting convection and the potential for heavy
snow in some of the higher terrain. Several inches of rain are
possible as the upper low passes through, but guidance continues
to show the heaviest precipitation staying just offshore to the
east. -By mid to late next week, with the upper low likely
disintegrated and heights rising, rainfall amounts and coverage
should decrease.


Santorelli