Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 AM EDT Sun Mar 08 2020 Valid 00Z Mon Mar 09 2020 - 00Z Mon Mar 16 2020 Trades should gradually relax somewhat over the next couple days, and begin veering to southeasterly as a surface high initially north of Hawaii moves farther east. Relatively sparse moisture will allow mainly windward driven showers with possibility for some lighter spillover into leeward areas. A number of model solutions continue to show the potential for a cold front to affect Hawaii from Wed night through the end of next week. A northern stream shortwave is forecast to amplify well northwest of Hawaii and separate from the northern stream in the form of a cutoff upper-level low by Tue-Wed. Models show general consensus that the associated cold front should reach the western Hawaiian islands late Wed. The front is then forecast to sweep eastward across Hawaii through the end of the week before perhaps stalling across the eastern islands next weekend. Guidance shows some consensus that a surge of deeper moisture along the front may occur by Fri into Sat as the front is across the eastern islands. The ECMWF and GFS both suggest the potential for heavy rains by next weekend, particularly across the Big Island. Ensemble probabilities support this idea. Given the somewhat chaotic nature of the closed upper low and potential impacts on moisture advection along/ahead of the front, forecast confidence remains at least somewhat below average by late in the week/next weekend. Ryan