Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 09 2020 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 10 2020 - 00Z Tue Mar 17 2020 Trades should gradually weaken a bit over the next couple days, and begin veering to southeasterly as a surface high initially north of Hawaii moves farther east. Relatively sparse moisture will allow scattered showers primarily in windward locations. Models continue to show consensus that a cold front should affect Hawaii from Wed through the end of the week. A northern stream shortwave is forecast to amplify well northwest of Hawaii and separate from the from the stronger flow in the form of a cutoff upper-level low by midweek. Models show general consensus that the associated cold front should reach the western Hawaiian islands on Wed. The front is then forecast to sweep eastward across Hawaii through the end of the week before perhaps stalling across the eastern islands by the weekend. Guidance shows some consensus that a surge of deeper moisture along the front may occur by Fri into Sat as the front is across the eastern islands. Guidance continues to suggest some potential for heavy rains by the weekend, particularly across the Big Island. Ensemble probabilities support this idea. Given the somewhat chaotic nature of the closed upper low and potential impacts on moisture advection along/ahead of the front, forecast confidence remains at least somewhat below average by that time, however. Ryan