Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 29 2020 - 00Z Sun Apr 05 2020

Troughing will remain over the region through the next week as an
initial upper low weakens to the west of Hawai'i Sunday. With
precipitable water values around 1.2 - 1.5" and adequate lapse
rates supporting broader scale ascent for the next couple of days,
enhanced showers are possible over favored windward/mauka areas.
00Z hi-res guidance shows some local areal max QPFs of 3-5" and
spot maxima over 10" (perhaps overdone, but still a signal for
heavy rain).

For next week, a modest upper low to the east stays east of 150W
Mon-Tue and a much deeper system to the north digs southward  Wed.
That pattern will support light to modest showers with an E/ESE
low-level flow becoming lighter late in the week. Ensembles
indicate a cold frontal passage around next Sat with the upper
trough axis N to NE of the area. Prefer a model/consensus blend
approach given the tough time the guidance has had with the flow
over the Pacific lately.


Fracasso