Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 30 2020 - 00Z Mon Apr 06 2020

Troughing will remain over the region through the next several
days. With precipitable water values around 1.2 - 1.5" over the
Big Island, enhanced showers and heavier rainfall are possible
over favored windward/mauka areas. 00Z hi-res guidance shows some
local spot max QPFs of 2-3" later today into Monday but otherwise
light to modest rain is possible with PW values 1.2-1.5" over the
rest of the islands.

By Wednesday into Thursday a much deeper system to the north digs
southward (or possibly southwestward). 00Z Canadian was farthest
southwest followed by the ECMWF/UKMET with the GFS to the east.
Ensembles were split between the ECMWF and GFS solutions, and
prefer a middle ground as the Pacific has been less predictable
than average lately. This may bring a cold front into or through
the area sometime this coming weekend. Trades look to become
weaker by late in the week into the weekend but will be contingent
on the proximity of the surface front. This may bring in more
moisture and rainfall from the ITCZ should the trough axis remain
west of 160W.


Fracasso